A Trump loss isn’t fatal for Republicans
It’s looking likely that Joe Biden has hit the magical 270 mark in the electoral college which means he’s reached (and likely will surpass) the threshold to become elected President of the United States. The obvious caveat is the coming legal challenges in Pennsylvania and other swing states plus the potential of recounts which probably won’t shift states that Biden has won. The question that GOP strategists are now formulating is “whats next?” and they should be quite optimistic given the election results and exit poll data.
The Republicans are looking to gain seats in the House and if they win the Georgia run offs in January, will hold the Senate. The Supreme Court leans heavily to the conservative side of the aisle 6–3 and thanks to the court filling strategy lead by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell over the past four years, the appellate courts are conservative heavy as well.
Exit poll data shows that Trump and the Republicans grew their share of the lead across most minorities, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians and as a group, the percentage of the Muslim vote increased.
So if the courts legitimise a Biden victory, the Republicans have cause to be optimistic about the next four years, actually the next two years leading into the mid-term elections in 2022. If they hold the Senate, which they are favoured to do, then they will halt Biden’s progressive agenda. No wholly repeal of Trump’s tax cuts, no Green New Deal, no changes to the Supreme Court, no $5 trillion COVID relief, no mask mandate and if Biden wants to get anything done he’ll have to go the Executive Order route. Even then if there is a whiff of unconstitutionality the conservative majority Supreme Court will likely strike unconstitutional Executive Order’s down. Unfortunately for Biden he will face considerable headwinds ie, he will be a lame duck President faced with a global pandemic, an economy in recession, a recalcitrant Senate, a conservative Supreme Court, investigations over his son Hunter Biden’s alleged fraudulent pay for influence schemes and Bernie and the progressive element in the Democratic Party that will want it’s pound of flesh for supporting a moderate ticket in BidenHarris campaign. Looking to 2024, if the Republicans can run moderate candidates with popular appeal, think Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and Josh Hawley then the future isn’t looking so bad.
The key is to win the Georgia run-off’s and the challenge is Trump and his behaviour leading up to his likely exit in January. If Trump continues to push a fraud narrative that is unfounded, if he begins to pardon figures that are unpalatable to moderates and Republicans, if he begins to declassify information that hurts American interests then the Democrats could win both run-offs given Georgia is looking likely to go to Biden.
The next few weeks will be crucial and if the Republicans are thinking strategically, it may be a good idea for influential lawmakers and advisors to convince Trump to go quietly. A much more difficult task than what it sounds.
